Let me explain very simply why, in June 2026, I’m telling you that François Hollande will be re-elected President of the French Republic in May 2027.

First, let’s lay out the assumptions:

Three candidates could make it past the first round:

  • Mr. Mélenchon,
  • The RN candidate (we’ll know soon—on July 7, I believe—whether Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella will represent the party. It doesn’t change the outcome.)
  • « Mister White » Candidate

For Mister White  to make it past the first round, he must:

  • either outperform the RN candidate—a rather complicated scenario, as that would require 25–30% of the vote in the first round,
  • or outperform Mr. Mélenchon (in which case, a slightly lower percentage of the vote would likely suffice—say, 15–20%).

The first scenario is highly unlikely. Who on the Right or Center-Right could achieve such a result? No one. At best, Nicolas Sarkozy might be able to do so, but legal uncertainties

will completely prevent him from running.

The second scenario is more plausible:

we need to find a “ Mister White  ” who is on the Left and who can draw enough votes from the center-left and the far-left to boost his own share of the vote and siphon off votes from his potential rivals on the Left, with Mr. Mélenchon at the top of the list.

Which “ Mister White  ” can achieve this effect?

Mr. Gluksman? No, he has about as much charisma as Ms. Pécresse. They may have talents, but not that of an orator capable of winning over the crowds.

Marine Tondelier: not her either. And she’s expecting a baby next spring, which prevents her from campaigning (and from scoring very poorly).

Fabien Roussel: he’s surely a nice guy, but he doesn’t have any charisma either.

The far-left candidates: I mention them onlyfor the record; they don’t scare anyone, electorally speaking.

Attal: He’s too center-left to draw votes away from LFI or the far left.

Olivier Faure: You can’t get any more transparent and bland than that. Call him Mister cellaphane !

No, we need a leading figure on the left, with a political apparatus at his disposal (the PS and its numerous elected officials throughout France), known to all French people, recognized on the international stage, who is somewhat reassuring to the left (someone who has already demonstrated seriousness and left-wing credentials), and—last but not least—who is willing to fight and is truly capable of seeing a presidential campaign through to the end (it’s an extremely intense battle!)

There is only one such person: François Hollande.

He will reassure voters on the Left and the Center-Left, siphoning votes away from Attal, the Greens, and the Communist Party, and even taking many votes from Mélenchon (all those left-wing voters who vote for LFI only by default, due to a void in the left-wing political spectrum). He is thus in a position to surpass Mr. Mélenchon by more than just a few tens of thousands of votes, through a “communicating vessels” effect. Just enough to reduce Mr. Mélenchon’s total by a few small percentage points, and increase his own by the same amount.

And thus come in second, virtually assured of winning against a Bardella/Marine Le Pen ticket.

Of course, playing the role of a fortune-teller is not without risk with nearly 300 days to go before the elections. So many events could unfold. But this scenario is nonetheless possible. I would even say “highly plausible.